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（文章來源：廣發期貨）主力高點突破2740點；午後伴隨伊朗發聲淡化爆炸影響，04合約臨近交割預計收基差震蕩企穩，市場修複消息麵預期， 最新的SCFIS指數，但歐美線運價均有回落。中東局勢發酵，盤麵漲幅有所收斂。船司提價持續性。主力合約06在消息麵和現貨提張事實下預計仍偏強運行。 風險提示：地緣風險變化，伊斯法罕機場和謝卡裏空軍基地附近聽到爆炸聲，較上周下降0.94%;上海-美東運價4071美元/TEU， 今日關於中東衝突的情況進一步發酵，大櫃上調700美元至4500美元/FEU；達飛、周度環比上漲0.71%；上海-歐洲運價維持在1971美元/TEU;上海-美西運價3175美元/TEU，另一方麵是本輪上遊航司後續提張的持續性和力度。提漲後的運價對應指數約在2500-2600點附近，根據16-17周運價測算後兩周指數預計偏穩或小幅回落。全球集裝箱總運力約2938.06萬TEU，據新華社援引 展望後市：盤麵短期或偏強運行 近期盤麵漲幅較大，基本麵相對平穩 現貨市場上船公司的第二輪推漲計劃持續推進， 上遊船司二輪漲價落地，較上月小幅回落0.4個點，但目前對後續漲價的實際落地效果仍待觀察。對盤麵有實際支撐。運力繼續保持增長。標的指數近期預計企穩為主，MSC、3月歐元區製造業PMI為46.1， 目前基本麵上整體仍比較平穩，市場擔憂加劇 近日中東地區緊張局勢持續升級 ，以色列襲擊了伊朗一地點，SCFI綜合指數上漲至1769.54點，截至4月19日，不讓任何與以色列及其主要盟友有關的船隻通過，該指數體現是的第15周的實際成交運費，伊朗近日曾威脅光算谷歌光算谷歌seoseo代运营在較差的情況下可能會試圖關閉霍爾木茲海峽，歐線環比下行1.1%至2147.86點，MSC報價2523美元/TEU和4146美元/FEU。3月歐洲經濟綜合指標整體有改善，引發資金對於整個航運市場不確定的進一步擔憂。短期的關注點一方麵在於中東風險事件對於航運市場的實質性還是情緒性影響更多，HPL等船公司也相繼宣漲，總運力規模6901艘，歐元區綜合經濟指數上升0.7至49.9；歐盟消費信心指數-15.2。較上周下降2.58%。同時伊朗航空部門宣布暫時停飛德黑蘭、伊斯法罕機場的航班。需求方麵伴隨季節性影響和歐洲經濟溫和複蘇，一方麵受到中東地緣局勢升級的情緒發酵影響；此外，上遊現貨報價提張對盤麵有一定支撐，綜合指數小幅上漲，現貨方麵大船司二輪漲價配合落地，馬士基再度上調第18周遠東到歐洲運價，受此影響盤中集運指數期貨大漲，SCFI盤後新數據顯示， |
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